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This report describes a new seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). It will replace the ''Seismic Hazard Methodology for the Central and Eastern United States'', EPRI Report NP-4726 (July 1986) and the ''Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of the Rocky Mountains'', Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Model, (Bernreuter et al., 1989). The objective of the CEUS-SSC Project is to develop a new seismic source model for the CEUS using a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 assessment process. The goal of the SSHAC process is to represent the center, body, and range of technically defensible interpretations of the available data, models, and methods. Input to a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) consists of both seismic source characterization and ground motion characterization. These two components are used to calculate probabilistic hazard results (or seismic hazard curves) at a particular site. This report provides a new seismic source model. | This report describes a new seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). It will replace the ''Seismic Hazard Methodology for the Central and Eastern United States'', EPRI Report NP-4726 (July 1986) and the ''Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of the Rocky Mountains'', Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Model, (Bernreuter et al., 1989). The objective of the CEUS-SSC Project is to develop a new seismic source model for the CEUS using a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 assessment process. The goal of the SSHAC process is to represent the center, body, and range of technically defensible interpretations of the available data, models, and methods. Input to a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) consists of both seismic source characterization and ground motion characterization. These two components are used to calculate probabilistic hazard results (or seismic hazard curves) at a particular site. This report provides a new seismic source model. | ||
===Results and Findings=== | |||
The product of this report is a regional CEUS-SSC model. This model includes consideration of an updated database, full assessment and incorporation of uncertainties, and the range of diverse technical interpretations from the larger technical community. The SSC model will be widely applicable to the entire CEUS, so this project uses a ground motion model that includes generic variations to allow for a range of representative site conditions (deep soil, shallow soil, hard rock). Hazard and sensitivity calculations were conducted at seven test sites representative of different CEUS hazard environments. | The product of this report is a regional CEUS-SSC model. This model includes consideration of an updated database, full assessment and incorporation of uncertainties, and the range of diverse technical interpretations from the larger technical community. The SSC model will be widely applicable to the entire CEUS, so this project uses a ground motion model that includes generic variations to allow for a range of representative site conditions (deep soil, shallow soil, hard rock). Hazard and sensitivity calculations were conducted at seven test sites representative of different CEUS hazard environments. | ||
===Challenges and Objectives=== | |||
The regional CEUS-SSC model will be of value to readers who are involved in PSHA work, and who wish to use an updated SSC model. This model is based on a comprehensive and traceable process, in accordance with SSHAC guidelines in NUREG/CR-6372, ''Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts''. The model will be used to assess the present-day composite distribution for seismic sources along with their characterization in the CEUS and uncertainty. In addition, this model is in a form suitable for use in PSHA evaluations for regulatory activities, such as Early Site Permit (ESPs) and Combined Operating License Applications (COLAs). | The regional CEUS-SSC model will be of value to readers who are involved in PSHA work, and who wish to use an updated SSC model. This model is based on a comprehensive and traceable process, in accordance with SSHAC guidelines in NUREG/CR-6372, ''Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts''. The model will be used to assess the present-day composite distribution for seismic sources along with their characterization in the CEUS and uncertainty. In addition, this model is in a form suitable for use in PSHA evaluations for regulatory activities, such as Early Site Permit (ESPs) and Combined Operating License Applications (COLAs). | ||
===Applications, Values, and Uses=== | |||
Development of a regional CEUS seismic source model will provide value to those who (1) have submitted an ESP or COLA for Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) review before 2011; (2) will submit an ESP or COLA for NRC review after 2011; (3) must respond to safety issues resulting from NRC Generic Issue 199 (GI-199) for existing plants and (4) will prepare PSHAs to meet design and periodic review requirements for current and future nuclear facilities. This work replaces a previous study performed approximately 25 years ago. Since that study was completed, substantial work has been done to improve the understanding of seismic sources and their characterization in the CEUS. Thus, a new regional SSC model provides a consistent, stable basis for computing PSHA for a future time span. Use of a new SSC model reduces the risk of delays in new plant licensing due to more conservative interpretations in the existing and future literature. | Development of a regional CEUS seismic source model will provide value to those who (1) have submitted an ESP or COLA for Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) review before 2011; (2) will submit an ESP or COLA for NRC review after 2011; (3) must respond to safety issues resulting from NRC Generic Issue 199 (GI-199) for existing plants and (4) will prepare PSHAs to meet design and periodic review requirements for current and future nuclear facilities. This work replaces a previous study performed approximately 25 years ago. Since that study was completed, substantial work has been done to improve the understanding of seismic sources and their characterization in the CEUS. Thus, a new regional SSC model provides a consistent, stable basis for computing PSHA for a future time span. Use of a new SSC model reduces the risk of delays in new plant licensing due to more conservative interpretations in the existing and future literature. | ||
===Perspective=== | |||
The purpose of this study, jointly sponsored by EPRI, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the NRC was to develop a new CEUS-SSC model. The team assembled to accomplish this purpose was composed of distinguished subject matter experts from industry, government, and academia. The resulting model is unique, and because this project has solicited input from the present-day larger technical community, it is not likely that there will be a need for significant revision for a number of years. See also Sponsors’ Perspective for more details. | The purpose of this study, jointly sponsored by EPRI, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the NRC was to develop a new CEUS-SSC model. The team assembled to accomplish this purpose was composed of distinguished subject matter experts from industry, government, and academia. The resulting model is unique, and because this project has solicited input from the present-day larger technical community, it is not likely that there will be a need for significant revision for a number of years. See also Sponsors’ Perspective for more details. | ||
===Approach=== | |||
The goal of this project was to implement the CEUS-SSC work plan for developing a regional CEUS-SSC model. The work plan, formulated by the project manager and a technical integration team, consists of a series of tasks designed to meet the project objectives. This report was reviewed by a participatory peer review panel (PPRP), sponsor reviewers, the NRC, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other stakeholders. Comments from the PPRP and other reviewers were considered when preparing the report. The SSC model was completed at the end of 2011. | The goal of this project was to implement the CEUS-SSC work plan for developing a regional CEUS-SSC model. The work plan, formulated by the project manager and a technical integration team, consists of a series of tasks designed to meet the project objectives. This report was reviewed by a participatory peer review panel (PPRP), sponsor reviewers, the NRC, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other stakeholders. Comments from the PPRP and other reviewers were considered when preparing the report. The SSC model was completed at the end of 2011. | ||
===Keywords=== | |||
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) | ||
Seismic source characterization (SSC) | Seismic source characterization (SSC) | ||
| Line 34: | Line 28: | ||
==General Information== | ==General Information== | ||
===Sponsors' Acknowledgement=== | |||
The project sponsors would like to acknowledge the following individuals for directing the project: | The project sponsors would like to acknowledge the following individuals for directing the project: | ||
| Line 52: | Line 45: | ||
===Project Organization=== | |||
This document was prepared by the following investigators: | This document was prepared by the following investigators: | ||
{| class="projorg" | {| class="projorg" | ||
| Line 79: | Line 71: | ||
===Project Acknowledgements=== | |||
This study was sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Advanced Nuclear Technology Action Plan Committee, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and Office of the Chief of Nuclear Safety, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. Technical experts from the DOE, NRC, U.S. Geological Survey, Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board, industry, and academia participated in the study as part of the Technical Integration (TI) Team or as members of the Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP). Any statements, opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the participating or sponsoring agencies. | This study was sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Advanced Nuclear Technology Action Plan Committee, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and Office of the Chief of Nuclear Safety, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. Technical experts from the DOE, NRC, U.S. Geological Survey, Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board, industry, and academia participated in the study as part of the Technical Integration (TI) Team or as members of the Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP). Any statements, opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the participating or sponsoring agencies. | ||
| Line 91: | Line 82: | ||
==[[About/Executive Summary|Executive Summary]]== | ==[[About/Executive Summary|Executive Summary]]== | ||
==[[About/PPRP Final Report|PPRP Final Report]]== | ==[[About/PPRP Final Report|PPRP Final Report]]== | ||
==[[About/Sponsors | ==[[About/Sponsors Perspective|Sponsors' Perspective]]== | ||
==[[About/Terms of Use|Terms of Use]]== | ==[[About/Terms of Use|Terms of Use]]== | ||
==[[About/FAQ|Frequently Asked Questions]]== | ==[[About/FAQ|Frequently Asked Questions]]== | ||
Latest revision as of 21:24, 30 April 2025
Project Abstract[edit]
This report describes a new seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). It will replace the Seismic Hazard Methodology for the Central and Eastern United States, EPRI Report NP-4726 (July 1986) and the Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of the Rocky Mountains, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Model, (Bernreuter et al., 1989). The objective of the CEUS-SSC Project is to develop a new seismic source model for the CEUS using a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 assessment process. The goal of the SSHAC process is to represent the center, body, and range of technically defensible interpretations of the available data, models, and methods. Input to a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) consists of both seismic source characterization and ground motion characterization. These two components are used to calculate probabilistic hazard results (or seismic hazard curves) at a particular site. This report provides a new seismic source model.
Results and Findings[edit]
The product of this report is a regional CEUS-SSC model. This model includes consideration of an updated database, full assessment and incorporation of uncertainties, and the range of diverse technical interpretations from the larger technical community. The SSC model will be widely applicable to the entire CEUS, so this project uses a ground motion model that includes generic variations to allow for a range of representative site conditions (deep soil, shallow soil, hard rock). Hazard and sensitivity calculations were conducted at seven test sites representative of different CEUS hazard environments.
Challenges and Objectives[edit]
The regional CEUS-SSC model will be of value to readers who are involved in PSHA work, and who wish to use an updated SSC model. This model is based on a comprehensive and traceable process, in accordance with SSHAC guidelines in NUREG/CR-6372, Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. The model will be used to assess the present-day composite distribution for seismic sources along with their characterization in the CEUS and uncertainty. In addition, this model is in a form suitable for use in PSHA evaluations for regulatory activities, such as Early Site Permit (ESPs) and Combined Operating License Applications (COLAs).
Applications, Values, and Uses[edit]
Development of a regional CEUS seismic source model will provide value to those who (1) have submitted an ESP or COLA for Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) review before 2011; (2) will submit an ESP or COLA for NRC review after 2011; (3) must respond to safety issues resulting from NRC Generic Issue 199 (GI-199) for existing plants and (4) will prepare PSHAs to meet design and periodic review requirements for current and future nuclear facilities. This work replaces a previous study performed approximately 25 years ago. Since that study was completed, substantial work has been done to improve the understanding of seismic sources and their characterization in the CEUS. Thus, a new regional SSC model provides a consistent, stable basis for computing PSHA for a future time span. Use of a new SSC model reduces the risk of delays in new plant licensing due to more conservative interpretations in the existing and future literature.
Perspective[edit]
The purpose of this study, jointly sponsored by EPRI, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the NRC was to develop a new CEUS-SSC model. The team assembled to accomplish this purpose was composed of distinguished subject matter experts from industry, government, and academia. The resulting model is unique, and because this project has solicited input from the present-day larger technical community, it is not likely that there will be a need for significant revision for a number of years. See also Sponsors’ Perspective for more details.
Approach[edit]
The goal of this project was to implement the CEUS-SSC work plan for developing a regional CEUS-SSC model. The work plan, formulated by the project manager and a technical integration team, consists of a series of tasks designed to meet the project objectives. This report was reviewed by a participatory peer review panel (PPRP), sponsor reviewers, the NRC, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other stakeholders. Comments from the PPRP and other reviewers were considered when preparing the report. The SSC model was completed at the end of 2011.
Keywords[edit]
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) Seismic source characterization (SSC) Seismic source characterization model Central and Eastern United States (CEUS)
General Information[edit]
Sponsors' Acknowledgement[edit]
The project sponsors would like to acknowledge the following individuals for directing the project:
| Coppersmith Consulting, Inc. 2121 N. California Blvd., #290 Walnut Creek, CA 94596 Technical Integration (TI) Lead K.J. Coppersmith |
Savannah River Nuclear Solutions, LLC Savannah River Site Bldg. 730-4B, #313 Aiken, SC 29808 CEUS-SSC Project Manager L.A. Salomone |
This document describes research sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) under Award Number DE-FG07-08ID14908, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC) under Award Number NCR-04-09-144.
This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FG07-08ID14908.
This publication is a corporate document that should be cited in the literature in the following manner: Technical Report: Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA, U.S. DOE, and U.S. NRC: 2012.
Project Organization[edit]
This document was prepared by the following investigators:
| Technical Integration Lead: | Kevin J. Coppersmith | |
| Project Manager: | Lawrence A. Salomone | |
| Technical Integration Team: | Chris W. Fuller Laura L. Glaser Kathryn L. Hanson Ross D. Hartleb William R. Lettis Scott C. Lindvall |
Stephen M. McDuffie Robin K. McGuire Gerry L. Stirewalt Gabriel R. Toro Robert R. Youngs |
| Database Manager: | David L. Slayter | |
| Technical Support: | Serkan B. Bozkurt Randolph J. Cumbest Valentina Montaldo Falero Roseanne C. Perman |
Allison M. Shumway Frank H. Syms Martitia (Tish) P. Tuttle, Paleoliquefaction Data Resource |
Project Acknowledgements[edit]
This study was sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Advanced Nuclear Technology Action Plan Committee, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and Office of the Chief of Nuclear Safety, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. Technical experts from the DOE, NRC, U.S. Geological Survey, Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board, industry, and academia participated in the study as part of the Technical Integration (TI) Team or as members of the Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP). Any statements, opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the participating or sponsoring agencies.
Jeffrey F. Hamel was the EPRI Advanced Nuclear Technology Program Manager. Lawrence A. Salomone of Savannah River Nuclear Solutions, LLC, served as the Project Manager for the study. Kevin J. Coppersmith of Coppersmith Consulting Inc., served as the lead for the TI Team.
J. Carl Stepp of Earthquake Hazards Solutions, and Walter J. Arabasz, Research Professor Emeritus of Geology and Geophysics at the University of Utah, served as Co-chairmen for the PPRP. The entire Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization Project Team and their roles are discussed in Section 2 and are shown on the project organization chart (Figure 2.3-1) of the report.
The authors of the report wish to acknowledge the contributions of the following people: the resource experts who participated in Workshop 1, the proponent experts who participated in Workshop 2, and the technical experts who provided valuable insights, perspective, and references throughout the study. The names of all these contributors are listed in Table 2.2-2. In addition, the authors of the report appreciate the support of Geraldine Moore-Butler as administrative assistant and Nancy L. Sutherland as technical editor for the project. This report was assembled at AMEC.